Runner's Race Time Predictor
Estimate your finish times for different race distances
Your Predicted Race Times
Based on your time of , here are your predicted finish times:
This formula uses a fatigue factor of 1.06 and is widely accepted for race predictions.
| Distance | Predicted Time | Pace |
|---|
A more conservative model that may better predict longer distance performances.
| Distance | Predicted Time | Pace |
|---|
Detailed pacing information for your predicted races:
| Distance | Split Time | Overall Time |
|---|
Based on your current fitness level, here are recommended training paces:
| Training Type | Pace Range | Example Workout |
|---|---|---|
| Zone 1: Recovery | Easy 30-45 min runs, active recovery | |
| Zone 2: Endurance | Long runs, easy-moderate effort | |
| Zone 3: Tempo | 20-40 min tempo runs, half marathon pace | |
| Zone 4: Threshold | 4-8 x 800m repeats, 10K pace | |
| Zone 5: VO2 Max | 6-10 x 400m repeats, 5K pace or faster |
How the Predictions Work
This calculator uses multiple formulas to predict your race times:
Riegel Formula: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)1.06
Where T1 is your known time, D1 is your known distance, T2 is your predicted time, and D2 is the target distance. The exponent 1.06 represents the fatigue factor.
Cameron Formula: T2 = T1 × (D2 ÷ D1)(13.49 × ln(D2) - 13.49 × ln(D1)) ÷ (13.49 × ln(D1) - 13.49 × ln(D1) + ln(T1))
This formula applies a more sophisticated model that may better account for longer distance fatigue.
These predictions assume:
- You are properly trained for both distances
- Similar race conditions (weather, terrain, etc.)
- Optimal pacing strategy
Remember that these are estimates - your actual performance may vary based on training, conditions, and race-day factors.
